الواجهـة العربيـة
About IPO
Homepage







News Analysis




Articles




Reports



News Analysis

By Ahmed Alaskary and Ali Latif
September 21, 2006
 
The way forward in Iraq
  • After a period of uncertainty over what to do in Iraq, essentially two views have emerged from Washington:
  1. Abandon Iraq
    This case has been presented in several forms:
    • Split Iraq up into 3 autonomous regions based on sectarian lines.
    • Establish a new friendly dictatorship after convening with local neighbors
    • Allow civil war to take place and one clear winner will emerge
  2. A short-term increase in the number of troops
    A measure to deal with the Baathist Jihadist insurgency.
  • The abandon Iraq option will hand 'victory' to the insurgency which seeks to oust the US from Iraq and overthrow its nascent democratic government. The ramifications of a post-withdrawal Iraq will be felt for years to come as Salafi-Wahabi terrorists from the region will transform western and central Iraq into a terrorist haven. Furthermore, the more the US disengages and undermines moderates in Iraq, the more Iranian influence will grow.
  • Abandoning democracy will be the ultimate nail in the coffin for the US desire for a new Middle East. The perceived failure in any of these scenarios will embolden the dictatorial regimes in the region, which are the breeding grounds for global Salafi-Wahabi Islamist terrorist groups.  
  • An increase in troops, particularly in Baghdad is necessary to stop the continuous bloodshed and downward spiral to civil war.  Securing the capital requires doing the job that was never done destroying the Sunni-dominated Baath Party intelligence and security apparatus, which provides the backbone, the brains and the logistics of the insurgency in Iraq. This will free Iraq's Sunni community from this shadow and allow them to fully take part in the democratic process and embrace the national reconciliation process, as their democratically elected leaders have urged.  Furthermore, improving security from terrorists attacks will undermine the militias and provide Iraq's government with the necessary conditions to take on the militias.
  • Positive steps such as the tribes of Anbar agreeing to unite against Al-Qaeda and the reforms being implemented in the security forces provide the impetus for the US and Iraqi governments to carry on working towards stabilizing Iraq and consolidating its democratic future.
Moqtada and the Mehdi Army
  • On the issue of Moqtada Al-Sadr, several commentators have admitted that he must be dealt with politically, not militarily, and he must now be grudgingly accepted as a legitimate political player. His embrace of the political process and pubic calls for restraint over the last year demonstrate he is amenable to abandoning violence.
  • There is growing doubt over how much control Moqtada actually has over the Mehdi Army militia. The incident in Diwaniyah last month, where Moqtada called for the Mahdi Army to put down its arms without success indicates there are elements in the Mahdi Army who are not loyal to Moqtada.
  • And this presents itself as an opportunity. Moqtada Al-Sadr should be encouraged to recruit elements of the Mehdi Army which are both loyal to him and do not have blood on their hands to take on the rogue elements of the Mehdi army as part of a combined effort by the Iraqi government. The National Reconciliation Plan can serve as the vehicle for bringing about such a plan and can be coordinated by his representatives in parliament. 
© 2007 Iraqi Prospect Organisation
Search